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Old 12-31-2011, 09:30 AM   #1
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Default Tiffany Looks Fairly Valued At Present Levels - Seeking Alpha

As part of our process, we perform a rigorous discounted cash-flow methodology that dives into the true intrinsic worth of companies. In Tiffany's (TIF) case, we think its fair value is 67 per share, which is near where it is currently trading (our report on Tiffany and hundreds of other <a href="http://www.monsterbeats-online.org/monster-beats-tour-with-controltalk-high-performance-whitegrey-inear-headphones-p-61.html"><strong>Tour with ControlTalk headphone white </strong></a> companies can be found here). For some background, we think a comprehensive analysis of a firm's discounted cash-flow valuation, relative valuation versus industry peers, as well as an assessment of technical and momentum indicators is the best way to identify the most attractive stocks at the best time to buy. This process culminates in what we call our Valuentum Buying Index (click here for more info on our methodology), which ranks stocks on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best. If a company is undervalued both on a DCF and on a relative valuation basis and is showing improvement in technical and momentum indicators, it scores high on our scale. Tiffany scores a 3 on our scale (reflecting its fair value, but bearish technicals). We'd consider adding Tiffany to our Best Ideas portfolio if its shares fell below 50. Our Report on Tiffany (Click to enlarge) Investment Considerations (Click to enlarge) Investment Highlights Tiffany earns a ValueCreation&trade; rating of EXCELLENT, the highest possible mark on our scale. The firm has been generating economic value for shareholders for the past few years, a track record we view very positively. We expect the firm's return on invested capital (excluding goodwill) to expand to 21.1% from 19.6% during the next two years. The company looks fairly valued at this time. We expect the firm to trade within our fair value estimate range for the time being. If the firm's share price fell below 50, we'd take a closer look. Tiffany has an excellent combination of strong free cash flow generation and low financial leverage. We expect the firm's free cash flow margin to average about 9.5% in coming years. Total debt-to-EBITDA was 1 last year, while debt-to-book capitalization stood at 25.7%. The firm's share price performance has trailed that of the market during the past quarter. However, it is trading within our fair value estimate range, so we don't view such activity as alarming. (Click to enlarge) Economic Profit Analysis The best measure of a firm's ability to create value for shareholders is expressed by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) with its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The gap or difference between ROIC and WACC is called the firm's economic profit spread. Tiffany 's 3-year historical return on invested capital (without goodwill) is 18.9%, which is above the estimate of its cost of capital of 9.3%. As such, we assign the firm a ValueCreation&trade; rating of EXCELLENT. In the chart below, we show the probable path of ROIC in the years ahead based on the estimated volatility of key drivers behind the measure. The solid grey line reflects the most likely outcome, in our opinion, and represents the scenario that results in our fair value estimate. (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) Cash Flow Analysis (Click to enlarge) Firms that generate a free cash flow margin (free cash flow divided by total revenue) above 5% are usually considered cash cows. Tiffany 's free cash flow margin has averaged about 9.1% during the past 3 years. As such, we think the firm's cash flow generation is relatively STRONG. The free cash flow measure shown above is derived by taking cash flow from operations less capital expenditures and differs from enterprise free cash flow (FCFF), which we use in deriving our fair value estimate for the company. For more information on the differences between these two measures, please visit our website at www.valuentum.com. At Tiffany , cash flow from operations increased about 124% from levels registered two years ago, while capital expenditures fell about 18% over the same time period. Valuation Analysis Our discounted cash flow model indicates that Tiffany 's shares are worth between 50.00 - 84.00 each. The margin of safety around our fair value estimate is driven by the firm's MEDIUM ValueRisk&trade; rating, which is derived from the historical volatility of key valuation drivers. The estimated fair value of 67 per share represents a price-to-earnings <a href="http://www.monsterbeats-online.org/monster-beats-tour-with-controltalk-high-performance-blackredgrey-inear-headphones-p-60.html"><strong>beats by dr dre tour black headphone</strong></a> (P/E) ratio of about 23.4 times last year's earnings and an implied EV/EBITDA multiple of about 11.8 times last year's EBITDA. Our model reflects a compound annual revenue growth rate of 9.3% during the next five years, a pace that is higher than the firm's 3-year historical compound annual growth rate of 1.6%. Our model reflects a 5-year projected average operating margin of 21.6%, which is above Tiffany 's trailing 3-year average. Beyond year 5, our valuation model assumes free cash flow will grow at an annual rate of 4.2% for the next 15 years and 3% in perpetuity. For Tiffany , our model uses a 9.3% weighted average cost of capital to discount future free cash flows. (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) Margin of Safety Analysis Our discounted cash flow process values each firm on the basis of the present value of all future free cash flows. Although we estimate the firm's fair value at about 67 per share, every company has a range of probable fair values that's created by the uncertainty of key valuation drivers (like future revenue or earnings, for example). After all, if the future was known with certainty, we wouldn't see much volatility in the markets as stocks would trade precisely at their known fair values. Our ValueRisk&trade; rating sets the margin of safety or the fair value range we assign to each stock. In the graph below, we show this probable range of fair values for Tiffany . We think the firm is attractive below 50 per share (the green line), but quite expensive above 84 per share (the red line). The prices that fall along the yellow line, which includes our fairvalue estimate, represent a reasonable valuation for the firm, in our opinion. (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) Future Path of Fair Value We estimate Tiffany 's fair value at this point in time to be about 67 per share. As time passes, however, companies generate cash flow and pay out cash to shareholders in the form of dividends. The chart below compares the firm's current share price with the path of Tiffany 's expected equity value per <a href="http://www.monsterbeats-online.org/monster-diddybeats-with-controltalk-high-performance-black-inear-headphones-p-77.html"><strong>black Diddybeats in-ear headphone</strong></a> share over the next three years, assuming our long-term projections prove accurate. The range between the resulting downside fair value and upside fair value in Year 3 represents our best estimate of the value of the firm's shares three years hence. This range of potential outcomes is also subject to change over time, should our views on the firm's future cash flow potential change. The expected fair value of 85 per share in Year 3 represents our existing fair value per share of 67 increased at an annual rate of the firm's cost of equity less its dividend yield. The upside and downside ranges are derived in the same way, but from the upper and lower bounds of our fair value estimate range. (Click to enlarge) Pro Forma Financial Statements (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
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