cheap manufacturing era is ending, scale advantages are unsustainable, and many local champions instead bet on a premium brand, but they are waiting for the ceiling ado. Way out?
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bad news has been enough. From the raw materials, labor costs are in the land continued to rise, squeezing many manufacturing and retail enterprises gain, and will be passed on to consumers but the is not easy. Wal-Mart and other large retailers a major supplier - Hong Kong-based consumer goods sourcing and logistics company Li & Fung (Li & Fung) warned that words, suggesting that deflation by the end of the Chinese guide.
unusual circumstances of this indicates that the era of cheap Chinese manufacturing coming to an end is blunt. In the past 20 years, Chinese entrepreneurs in the dictionary only one word: size. China fought to be a lot of money to invest in transportation infrastructure, and ultimately originated in the local market, helping many small businesses to the country. The traditional role of marginal cost theory: just a crazy product, a company will be able to quickly into the sky.
Today, these miracles have been flattering. So that, when some began to champion local industry slowdown and the downturn of infectious, can not help but marvel how these phenomena occur sour.
the most representative of the sporting goods industry in the Li Ning Company Limited. Since its namesake founder - former Chinese gymnast Li Ning at the opening ceremony of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games is no fear of gravity, light the torch into the sky after a camel, this company was founded 20 years ago has now dropped back heavily on the Earth . Last December, the second quarter of 2011, Li Ning (Q2) ordering a staggering decline in orders: zero growth, investors bailed out of its stock. Although a long time in the past, Li Ning is China's largest domestic manufacturer of sporting goods, and more than Adidas in 2009, runner-up China's market, many investors and observers say that, Li Ning, the real trouble.
Li Ning is offering the 2010 annual report is also not very bright expected: Annual income of 9.479 billion yuan, an increase of 13.0%, increase was lower than in the past 10 years, more than 30% compound annual growth rate level. Although the market is still digesting 2011 Q2 orders slipped the bad news, but Li Ning Zhang Zhiyong, CEO spot in its annual report released further warned that Q3 will also be expected to the lowest point of the year. If you do not Suxiaojiuxin Pill-style first aid measures, the growth rate this year, Li Ning will remain at a low level. Li Ning used seemed to need long-term triumph of the hardships.
terrible collapse of the automotive industry are also shown. August 3 last year, BYD Auto (01211.HK) announced sales targets for the year from the previous 800,000 down to 600,000. However, this holds for Warren Buffett stocks strong thunder car manufacturer has not yet completed the task, only sold 519,800 full-year net profit fell 33.5% year on year.
among the independent auto brand Chery, the first situation is also similar: the original full-year target of 70 million units, but the actual sold only 682,000. Chery to enter the high-end market, which also kept feeling frustrated efforts. In 2009, Chery launched the Has recently announced the cancellation of six-Wei Lin established division, the brand has returned Chery sales company operations.
of wondering what happened clearly in the end is not easy. Simply put, in the past to rely on the comparative advantages of low-cost manufacturing and retail sales achieved by the size of the control has been difficult to sustain high growth - if write his memoirs, now can begin. In the local Chinese enterprises have the top spot earlier than their peers to upgrade to touch the ceiling of the brand,
Mbt Tembea Shoes Black, consumers continue to find cost-effective and better goods, but I'm sorry, with the increased purchasing power, they turned toward the multinational brands arms. Credit Suisse (Credit Suisse) in a research report demonstrates the difficulty of Li Ning, Nike Challenge: When the family income over 7000 yuan, the Chinese consumer preferences will shift from the domestic brands of foreign brands. Want to become the world champion Chinese brands seem to completely conquer the home market yet, not to mention the other overseas market.
our industry in at least four similar phenomenon was observed. In addition to the sporting goods industry and the automotive industry, outside the white goods industry and the hotel industry have shown similar characteristics. But the situation was slightly better point: has been promoted to the world's largest manufacturer of white Haier is not a sales decline, is focused on creating high-end sub-brand Casa Imperial in order to win high-value consumers; China's largest budget hotel chain Home Inns by Although far from the market at saturation, but Yi has also introduced the brand to get into four-and five-star hotel market.
the end, just like many Chinese companies realize the scale of the fascination with the past so that they missed some of the more critical things. Wang said chairman and president of BYD, BYD to be more concerned about Chery Chairman Yin Yue, general manager early this year, also known as: the pursuit of quantity and speed.
Another notable trend is that the default of the market over the past entirely different sphere of influence is being broken. Those who may be called In the past, they stick to high-end market, and now has begun to launch sub-brands or products more cost-effective way to compete in the low-end consumer and accelerate the extension of the retail network in the city three or four lines. This forced the Is to continue to retreat to a more low-end market, or in the high price and large, urban markets and gold line the brand launched a Warrior? Potential because of its situation and the different stages, those
to the sporting goods industry, for example, consumer products partner of Boston Consulting Managing Director Liao Tianshu that a slowdown in overall growth of the wave of first-tier cities from urban development to the low line, Anta their base in three or four lines the city, may not have felt. However, the
This is indeed a point to the future of the multiple-choice questions: These red and brands to choose where to battle? The key to winning and how in an ever-growing mid-market dominance. As more and more Chinese consumers to leap into the middle class, consumer groups over the past dumbbell structure is gradually changed and they no longer satisfied with low-cost procurement of goods, more like mid-market participation in the treasure hunt. McKinsey did last year, the report said China's consumer research, 2008 to 2009, China's retail market growth in half of consumer upgrades.
The problem is that the ambitious want to increase gold content of the Li Ning brand, Chery found that the premium in order to have such capacity is not easy. Reports and analysis from the article
how the loss of scale advantages
during the Industrial Revolution is regarded as the , where a number of industrial machines than the rest of the world once the total number of even more - it is the shuttle and the steam engine era. In China, to find a most representative of this ancient farming into the industrial transformation of the portrait of the country, may be a sociological study written by Pan Yi
This is the Chinese on both sides of miracles: the prosperity and behind the unrest. 30 years, China has low labor costs in the globalization process as the With the early arrival of an aging society, China's rural surplus labor is far from imagination so much, China is the shortage of labor by the labor surplus to the changing times. Last year, due to strained labor relations led to many large factories closed in China, when Foxconn's Shenzhen factory workers to a series of suicide events, the public criticism and discontent reached its peak.
Li & Fung Group Chairman Victor Fung believes that the controversy surrounding the Foxconn is a landmark event. Feng believes that cheap labor is not only marks the end of the era, such as dirt, but will also lead to China's economic growth over the past 30 years, the entire industrial park system dependent on the reflection.
Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley) data show that in the past 10 years, real hourly wages in Chinese manufacturing industry increased by 12.7% per year. The United States is the annual rate of 0.5%. Chinese worker output per hour for 21% of the United States, but wages are only 11% of the United States. This gap will begin to shrink. Li Ning, most of the foundries has reached the per capita wage between 1800-5000 yuan, the future is expected there will be increased by 10-15%. Involved in this,
Asics Whizzer Lo Shoes Men, JP Morgan Chase (JPMorgan), Managing Director, China Securities and commodities Jing Ulrich, chairman of that in construction, manufacturing, wholesale and retail industry segments most affected by rising wages.
that was not. Cost of raw materials, do not list the number of macro figures, businesses are feeling the dramatic price increase, which directly affects the profits of manufacturing and retail space.
flexible space for large-scale manufacturing more and more narrow, there is the rise of China's new economic zones, which allow consumers to shop more and showed greater preference for regional differences, which means that the order of a single product manufacturing and marketing of large scale has been difficult to achieve.
a city in China has passed a city connected together, according to McKinsey city group (ClusterMap) method, the city is divided into 22 cities in China group, around 1 to each urban agglomeration 2 Center for Urban Development, all of the satellite from a central city of no more than 300 kilometers, and GDP for each city group of Chinese cities are more than 1% of the total GDP. This classification method shows in different cities - even hundreds of kilometers apart - the consumer's buying habits are still vast differences, such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen,
Mbt M.Walk Shoes Black, driving distance of only 3 hours, but in the demographic composition, language and consumer preferences, etc. there different. Shenzhen residents in the 4 / 5 for migrant workers, aged more than 35 years of age, speak Mandarin or their own dialect, like the bar. The Guangzhou native population only 1 / 4, the high age of the population, mainly speak Cantonese, used to go to a restaurant for tea. Difference between no less than the difference between France and Germany.
few companies in the market between France and Germany use the same strategy, but a similar approach has become very popular in China. Many of them are focused on cultivating the largest market, while ignoring hundreds of cities in China, the difference between. This is Li Ning in March last year, began to re-adjust the sales system, the reasons for organizational structure, the entire Chinese market is divided into east, north, south China three large areas, not open orders from the headquarters of a unified will, but the major areas in local market features to hold orders, goods with their own decisions, and time to market.
Zhang Zhiyong The logic is simple: Open the last number to rely on the extensive mode of growth of scale lost the magic. Although there are three or four-tier cities continue to expand the retail end of the space, but because of the real estate rental and labor costs rise, single-store profit margins were declining. Li Ning, the year 2009 added 1,004 stores, of which 80% in the second and third tier cities, but same-store sales growth of 25.8% in 2008 but never fell into a -2.3%. The dealer store rental costs have accounted for 25% of sales to 30%.
This is the start of last year, Li Ning, integrated dealer network strong motivation. Will be only a single window of the scattered light integrated into the larger retailers, dealers system to further enhance the channel efficiency and management level. Figures speak for themselves: Li Ning, the number of stores in 2010 to 7915 with 2009 as 7249. The so-called because of declining orders, the failure of a large number of rebranding is not quite true customs shop.
in the sporting goods market, the consumer demand is divided into three levels: first-tier cities has entered a mature market, second and third-line market is the basis of the market from the transition to the mass market, four or five lines and six lines market basically still in the consumer entering the state. Currently, Nike, Adidas in the field of precision farming has been completed, the next step is to penetrate to the second and third line; and Li Ning, Anta and other domestic brands Zeyi shop to maintain the scale of growth. As the industry growth rate of the lower material costs, labor costs and retail channels, simple to shop to achieve economies of scale will significantly reduce the industrial power, efficiency than the lower level shops will make ends meet. Differences due to different levels of the larger cities, the city is now in the low line-level difficult to achieve In the first and second tier cities have mature shop type operation for years, often more difficult in the third and fourth tier cities flourish, flat effect is typically only 50-80% first-tier cities, some even after years of adjustment can not be profitable.
sporting goods, and second-line now covers more than one market, multi-channel retailer of sports operations for the brand, the store location, retail scale, retail and operational capability, logistics and information capacity has arrived in perfect; The remaining lower-level market and more single-brand retail-based, more sensitive to market fluctuations.
profit on the premise that ability to achieve high brand premium, which is the Li Ning brand remodeling in mind. To help dealers transition, Li Ning, lowered the purchase price of this year, giving dealers point deduction of 3% per year to enhance the department stores, retail operations, information, logistics and four core competitive advantage.
However, due to complicated domestic market, can not use a unified, simple amplification system to manage the different regional markets, which are exacerbated by the difficulty of marketing.
First, regional differences are significant consumers. McKinsey survey shows that differences in consumer behavior in the leading of the important factors, the impact of regional differences over the city level, income level and other key dominant factor, the complexity of the Chinese market is worth a dozen foreign countries combined. Such as regional differences in women's underwear market performance is obvious. Female consumers are most concerned about big cities materials, workmanship and fit the degree of emphasis on small cities are more beautiful women in the consumer color and lace appearance. North ######y female consumers like the design, colors, bold patterns printed underwear, female consumers prefer dark south.
followed dispersed suppliers and logistics system. China has about all kinds of not less than 21 million retail outlets, the consumer goods market in the top five retailers combined market share, only one-fifth, even though India, Indonesia, a country like Ukraine and Russia accounted for at least China's double. In addition to individual home appliances and other consumer goods categories, the vast majority of consumer goods market in China still face the current highly fragmented system of suppliers. In addition, efficient information management systems and lack of professionals is also restricting retail management.
competition makes the leading brands in the first line and second-tier cities, need to consider the constant breakdown and improve the existing mature As flat-effective pursuit of the same retail outlets can also use the to increase sales.
In this regard, Li Ning, a lot of room for improvement there. Zhang Zhiyong, visited last November in the southern market, it was found that many stores down jacket has a large number of the Li Ning goods. In his view, the down-market too early, not only ineffective goods sales backlog of normal schedule, and easy to create inventory to dealers. Li Ning will provide each quarter before more than 1,000 SKU (by color, style and other distinguished stock units), but now to the East, South and North market segments such as six-seven hundred SKU only, the rest of the products division active filtering. Zhang Zhiyong, provides even before launch, the product sector needs first product filtered again, consumer demand for specific markets in the delineation of goods, then the buyers and customers to communicate one by one. To speed up the reaction speed, Lining Jia big backstage logistics support base for the future of logistics in Jingmen radius up to 900 kilometers, 36% to 48% increase delivery speed, covering about 50% of the retail store.
many Chinese retail market also contributed to the scale of the new format difficult to manage, such as shopping malls, outlets / factory stores. Li Ning is an important strategy this year is to expand the number of factory stores, factory stores in 2010 accounted for 6-8% of total sales of Li Ning, the future will increase to 15%. Generally speaking, to open a retail store will increase 1 / 4 of library marketing products, these reasonable stock to digest.
fatal encounter
loss of scale advantages frustrating enough, and if do nothing, Zhang Zhiyong, see the more frightening future: With multinational companies gradually The following penetration, lifting the spending power of Chinese consumers, both will be destined to meet, but
multinationals indeed do so. 2009 in the Chinese market after the go-ahead by Li Ning, Adidas announced last November 2500 in China to open stores, the point is this more extensive sales network covering 1,400 cities in China, the first line of focus from close to saturation cities to smaller cities and less affluent consumers. From the initial population of 50 million will more than cover the city, million or more, the town will appear Adidas. Meanwhile, the scattered stores in smaller cities will be chosen to sell more low-priced products, and stores in large cities compared to its entry price for consumers will be 15% cheaper. Adidas Olympics in Beijing said it was optimistic forecast sales in China last year more than 10 billion euros. Adidas vowed that this goal will be achieved this year.
early as 2007, Adidas introduced to the Chinese market for the new NEO brand, targeted at 14 to 19 year olds, more fashion and casual style, the price of about Adidas sport performance is about half the gap with the local sports brand, within about 100 yuan. In accordance with Nike's NEO is currently in the country have been quietly scouring the development of more than 600 stores, the future will further increase the 200.
auto industry is just beginning a similar story. According to data from consulting firm Alix Partners, own brand in 2009 the proportion of total car sales in China in 2004 rose 21% to 32%, they fill the multinational giants of the market gap left: low-priced market. Consulting firm JD Power and Associates survey shows that most Chinese consumers tend to prefer the primary car about 6 million cars, but few international brands that range. With China's annual vehicle sales climbed million level, the existing level of market capacity expansion in the context of limited, multinational corporations determined to implement cross-border attack.
General Motors (GM) launched the domestic brands this Po Chun, the competition fierce as low-cost car market. GM China President Kevin Wale (Kevin Wale) said: Chun brand vehicles,
March 26 this year, Guangzhou Honda officially released for the Chinese market a new brand concept. In this regard, the original Tin president Takeo Fukui does not mince words with the Honda brand sales of the same channels, the joint venture low-cost own-brand small cars will be based, directly compete with local brands.
as early as 7 years ago, the wide production capacity jumped to 360,000, the original RICHLY FIELD Investment Corporation Atsuyoshi Hyogo expand capacity to think that simply is not the best solution, we must focus on local needs develop targeted, localized products. At the time of the wide range models of the structure, indeed the lack of a true economy cars. S1 from the concept car the appearance of the first view, this car is indeed moderate, and no bright spots, but it fit the national car's positioning, pricing 7-90000 yuan.
in accordance with the wide of the ideas, concepts are not satisfied with only low-priced small cars. S1,
Asics Top Seven White Navy Orange shoes, available, but their aspirations of a small part of the swan. Wide of the localization will be based on the Chinese market development and positioning, once the strategy to succeed, the concept will be the development of high-end models. At this point, Honda did not
to launch the concept, the wide R & D personnel interviewed more than 3,000 target consumers, a number of local design philosophy adopted in the final. Yao Yiming most impressive of which made the recommendation that consumers want to associate the driver's seat of the storage cell can be designed into the open style, easy to pick up at any time, which is most of the models can not meet the details. But even the design requirements of a storage cell, also encountered in the development of a number of problems: how to ensure that things do not fall out while driving? R & D company dedicated to this storage box made repeated the tilt angle of the simulation test.
S1 required a lot like low-cost high-quality Paradox - If you use an existing brand of parts, part of the technology, costly imported materials, but in the country to find alternatives, they have been Honda checks. Such as door handles, electric remote control, and other parts inside the engine, Honda requested and subject to tens of thousands of times more than 2 years experiment. Ultimately, the idea of S1 60% of the parts were redesigned.
has been established for 12 years on the wide, the concept has also opened the joint venture car company new page.
If multinational corporations began flocking to low-end market, Chery, BYD, Geely will have a good day to continue? Bad signs have emerged. Implemented this year in Beijing, the purchase of vehicles 摇号 policy, a BYD dealer said that most consumers may have to wait several months or 1 year in time to shake a license plate number, so choose a car, buy car is very cautious, even the first car many consumers also want to step in place, While BYD has announced a new round of sharp price cuts, but actually produced little effect.
where the battle
critics, Li Ning is easy to put the current difficulties experienced by the end of June last year, released as part of its rebranding of the failure of the evidence. This may mean something, but not all issues. In fact, the Li Ning in the replacement of the LOGO and thus redefine the brand content and product lines at the same time, the dealer network integration are simultaneously in progress. Decline in orders reflects the dealer's reluctance to approach the new strategy - which is always inevitable.
real question is, when Li Ning, like Goldman Sachs said that Li Ning's brand positioning between the global high-end brands and between brands of domestic mass market, this lack of a clear value proposition, stuck in the middle of the state is at risk.
but Zhang Zhiyong know Li Ning company must The reason is that China's sporting goods industry rely on the scale of growth in the past driving force has been weakened. Zhang expected the industry average growth rate of 13% to 14% by 2009 the figure was 35%.
But a question naturally occurring: the industry trend of slower growth in Li Ning, changed the reported figures, why did not affect the ANTA (02020.HK) of such catch-up? Its turnover last year,
Asics Gel DuoMax White Red, up 26.1% to 7.408 billion yuan in 2011, the amount of Q3 orders than last year will grow by about 20%, further narrowing the gap with Li Ning.
because, as the red and blue brand the brand Li Ning, Anta is not the same stage of development, the level of its core markets are also different. And the line in large cities, industry growth rate has become low, more to the lower line of the urban market, the higher relative growth rate. Anta an advantage in the three-line market, has a large amount of per capita income of $ 1,000 just across the emerging consumer.
said Zhang Zhiyong, Li Ning, 10 years ago this situation and similar. Li Ning's products were mainly in the segments in such a low price, a second-tier cities in emerging consumer market as its main source, the same is also growing rapidly. Therefore, When these consumers are starting to flock to Nike, Adidas store, the Li Ning, the market can only retreat to the lower line, .
Liningbian earlier step to a crossroads. Or low-line market continued to retreat, or offensive to the high-end market. In fact, the choice is not difficult to make. Deutsche Bank statistics show that in 2004 the largest Chinese sports goods market share from less than RMB 200 products, 40%; 300-500 yuan accounted for 30% of the price; 500 yuan more than 30%. But in 2009, this data has been a great change in 300-500 RMB-priced products accounted for more than 40%, and 500 yuan more than the price of comparable products accounted for, and 200 the following products have been reduced to 12%. There is no doubt, 400 yuan more than the price range will be the largest incremental part of the market.
contrast, as a catch-up to focus on the brand as long as the mass market, able to take full advantage of China's urbanization process and profit. Anta, Peak are expected in the next two years will continue to maintain strong growth. However, the Boston Consulting Consumer Goods experts Liao Tianshu believe that these brands have to change the long-term leave consumers a Sporting goods industry because the price of space is not very wide, top brands and low prices compared to a multiple of the brand is not large, so the consumer continue to seek to upgrade the customer base is concentrated in the mid-market, enterprises should strive for in this there The as.
hit the ceiling in the absence of prior to their size is still the primary task of the blue brand. In the economic chain hotel, 7-day story is similar. optimization. As of December 31, 2010, 7 days a total of 568 hotels in operation, including 321 direct sales stores, and management of 247 stores, a total of 56,410 rooms, the scale has been reached twice before listing in 2009, second only to Home. In addition, 7 days and 25 direct sales stores in the preparation period, and 172 managed stores have signed but not opened. 2011, announced the number of 290 new shop, above, such as home. Explosive growth in the number of its members as well. The end of seven days has passed 16.5 million members, an increase of 69.2%. Where the effective number of 5.6 million members, such as the home of the figure is 380 million.
Zhengnan Yan had observed the changes of the ratio of active members, if the shop has slowed down, the proportion will rise to 50%; the speed of a faster, this ratio will decline. Because each open a shop, will have a promotional effect of the surrounding, leading to more people to register. For seven days, the registered members the advantage of a large consumer base into the number of members will increase.
expansion Cheng secret is to give the manager full authority to encourage internal competition, or even Operating results of the previous two quarters, good manager has the right stores for the poor performance issue After the manager took over the management headquarters and their own settings according to the task completion rate, you can get more profits.
speed and scale of the industry is still the rules of the game. Hotels can affect the customer base, are acceptable accommodation for the following three weeks. China is now the number of hotels around the following three weeks in 2 to 3 thousand, so a conservative estimate, as a powerful alternative to competitor's economy hotel chain number of the overall size of not less than this figure. Now the first 4 major brands less than 10% market share, which means that at least the first 4 major brands can reach more than 2,000 of the scale will enter the market saturation.
this, such as the family CEO Sun Jian also hold the same view. However, Sun also saw another piece of the market: four five-star hotel. In 2008, such as the family and the aging brand launched. Sun high-end hotel that China is not a real platform, two three four lines in the city, these hotels and more in a single-based, mid-scale hotel has not yet formed, consumer upgrades will make consumers want to seek higher quality products . Meanwhile, cost pressures forced the Home to improve product value and price, to seek greater profit margins.
and Yi's birth is not easy. Aging the global financial crisis and slowing growth in two years. Until last year, and aging began to force, in Chengdu, Xi'an, Taiyuan and other second and third tier markets. Sun hoping to compete as home to and aging on gene duplication, that is, focus on guest experience, the design and remove all unnecessary services. Caobao the first in Shanghai and the H hotel designers from California, penned the corridor carpet on a black background on behalf of the universe, each room a different color of lights, said the availability of blue and red that people live. Furniture using a piano, the cost per room up to 12 million.
Sun Jian soon find the complicated design of such foreign operations for a good chain hotel such as the home that will be a fatal blow - not a large-scale replication. Sun started subtraction, cut unnecessary design, but also settled a return on investment and aging: The investment house is almost as fast a times, but was able to achieve sales of 1.8 times the latter.
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