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137867 2009 年 12 月 08 日 13:56 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (0) Category: economic
Yesterday,
Need for long the Chinese have not heard such a so, the Chinese central bank's monetary policy committee member, economist Fan Gang said in Hong Kong, China and other emerging markets there is the risk of the formation of asset bubbles. The same day, HKEx Chairman Ronald (Ronald Arculli), SOHO China, Zhang Xin, CEO issued a similar warning, saying the Asian stock market and real estate market is a bubble. The remarks represent a growing voice: the extraordinary size of the stimulus, the economy is no longer a risk to the economic downturn, but the massive growth in money supply, asset price bubbles.
central bank should focus on asset prices? The answer should be affirmative. The world's major central banks in setting monetary policy, are usually concerned about the consumer price (CPI), rather than asset prices (such as real estate and stocks). European Central Bank, Bank of England have a clear inflation target. Greenspan Fed for 18 years, basically to CPI movements as a basis for lifting interest rates. However, in the context of the global financial crisis, this approach increasingly being questioned. This criticism can be summarized as a chain: global excess capacity - low CPI inflation - low interest rates - the excess supply of money - asset price bubbles - the bubble burst (economic crisis).
excessive growth of asset prices, if left unchecked, the financial system and economic growth will bring disaster, which is not much controversy. U.S. blindly granting housing loans and related financial derivatives, families and financial institutions debt level (leverage ratio) is too high, the birth of the real estate bubble of the lesson is clear. However, China is a bubble in asset prices is a controversial issue. China's real estate and stocks rose sharply this year,
Little Japanese favorite, and its speed is worrying, but there are a reasonable side: China's savings rate is still high, the level of urbanization is very low; large commercial banks in the credit expansion, or low leverage counterparts in Europe (mainly bank loans to deposits ratio is only about 70%); the average performance of listed companies in China the best level in history, while the Shanghai index is only about half the record high.
to economists from the Chinese central bank, would be difficult for some people that clear the stock and the number of real estate prices fall, is a reasonable level. But there is an indicator of operation, that is, the money supply. Over the past five years, China's annual broad money (M2) growth is controlled at 17%, this year the index has exceeded 30%. With the real economy (GDP) compared to the growth of money is clearly too fast. CPI and PPI in the pressure of excess capacity is still weak,
Buddha fate - it is poignant - Qzone log, natural resources and fixed assets, the pressure to become the export price. If asset prices are indicators of a difficult to judge, then how to make money growth rate down to normal levels, is indeed a central bank should consider.
central bank can take control of the money supply? Very difficult, especially in the current zero interest rate U.S. dollar and renminbi appreciation expectations in the context of a strong, interest rates and exchange rate adjustment is very difficult to play to control the money in the short term the growth of the use. However, the Chinese central bank or five years before 2009, basically this - mainly rely on two instruments: the bank loan Now, more suspense is whether the central bank would tighten monetary policy. The face of economic growth and ensuring the employment pressure, and increased non-performing loans after the monetary tightening worries, under this determination is not good. However, one thing is certain, 30% of the money growth is an unusual time of the
central bank monetary assets, the price tag of real estate
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