I was 99 years ago, like many friends, in front of a computer all day watching technology, see the graphics, so that finally, make a mess, 99 years later, afraid to do, think can not lose is probably the most important rules, so 99 years later on the intention towards value investing. According to my own opinion, value investing is not 2006, 2005, 04-year points, which year do. I have normal play like this, to sum up, there are about four ways.
first, I called three no ***, that do not look at the tape, do not believe in technical analysis, do not do predictions. Do not look at the tape, very simple, the market is good, the bad stocks also fall a mess, there are still stocks daily limit, you just look at market activity fulfilled, or to be planted in individual stocks, and the other and vice versa, these four In a bear market, in fact, some stocks in mid-high, brought us very good return, so look at the broader market is useless, you'll eventually must appliance the stocks on this sentence a few exceptions, this problem only in index funds on, depending on market, at an average price-earnings ratio to the number, we should add to buy, when to lighten up. So I usually do not look at the broader market.
second is do not believe in technical thinking, 99 years ago and Gann theory wave theory seen too much, felt 18 martial arts can be secondhand, try it on, fknow next to nothing ofme time, some of my friends are doing Chuang, I obviously looked at the large room on the PLAY dealer, the dealer differentiated me, you see, I stopped in today to the closing price ** price, results in the ** stop price, which impressed me, so K chart these asset, you can not say that it is a lie, but a lot is a lie, if you depend on these technical analysis, ah, very dangerous, these risks embody, you may be stuck in a high location. I have many friends to do technical analysis, you see, which one can say they know morrow is up or down, can not do, so if you have been to the fortune-teller to pursue, which we have invested little to assist.
so (third) do not do forecasts, do not do predictions, precisely, do not do short-term predictions, can do long-term forecasts, such as the Chinese economic or an industry, you can probably tell a long-term situation, such as mobile phones there, you do not buy those stocks BB machine, color film there, do not buy black and white film stock, digital cameras came out, the stock of traditional cameras, the Kodak as well-known, not going to touch it , which we can foresee that SARS came, tourism, aviation industry affected, we probably can be predicted. But you say, tomorrow will be 1000 points, it is definitely below the 1000 points. 2005 high, to rise to 5000 points, and added a decisive duration of a day rose to the number of points, this is the exact error, say those who predicted that a decisive period or on a certain number of minutes rose to a second point, basically a lie, precisely correct the error as vague good, so I do not do prophecies.
This is the first investment approximate, the three do not ***.
second, 12 words of the investment tactics, the twelve word it? I put something like *** quotations Buffett as research for five years, I summarize in their own words, using 12 words can be summed up: good stocks a good price, long-term holding, fitting decentralization. This is 12 words in order of priority, the most important is a good stock. Good stock in the upon, speak up and broad, but I think, what cheer shares Simply put: there is the essence competitiveness, long-term vitality, growth of profits each year not less than 15% of the net assets of not less than 10% , and so on. Me a concise portrayal, a further example. I am in the A-share market, Hong Kong stock market over the years feel that the probability of stocks in 1000 to have 50 considered Shanghao's beautiful good, if you frequently buy shares, certainly more of a good range of stock I bought this 4-year average annual stock is 2-3, so I bought some 200% earned at least 50 percent earned at least, that you must be in a good stock to work on. Here I am talking about are the most important thing.
a good price, this a good price, a lot of friends shares, in counting to not bought shares, buying them junk stocks of mistakes, there is the answer of price. Let me give some examples, we booked my ticket, will play a lot of calls to see which airlines discount play more, we went to the supermarket to buy food, be sure to look at the price, 10 yuan a kg of bitter gourd, I have to ascertain 2,3 per 1 kg of bitter gourd, 100 Apple, who would buy the $ 100 Apple? We will go to $ 3 per apple. I think you buy Apple, also may attempt an see if Apple is good. We routinely buy entities, is unambiguous. Buy a clothes, and again re-examination, sale. 1000 yuan clothing in half and then curve. And many of us to buy stocks, take all the money, years of savings, but to buy a stock is really sloppy, a phone call on the next one, or heard a friend said: Very sloppy, but extremely important for the stock price, did not go thought. Or think that the stock 100 yuan a share, is very priceless, that the stock 3 yuan a share, very inexpensive. From the total price of outlook, this is a great misinterpreting. You will find in Hong Kong, 130 yuan HSBC international friendship than Threepenny do not know how much cheaper. Threepenny 1000 times the stock price-earnings ratio, or after hours bankrupt, and 130 yuan HSBC, you put in there, earning an mean of 5%, no problem at all. This is the price of the errors. I am the target company, carefully calculated, which considered it the price, it is worth we buy. I bought Liquor, at the present price ex, is 15 yuan to buy, the dynamic price-earnings ratio is 10 times less than the static price-earnings ratio is 12 times, Yunnanbaiyao is 12 yuan to buy, Tong Ren Tang Technologies is 5.5 yuan to buy, I There is a exercise, anyone more than 20 times earnings,
Womens Lacoste Arin Trainers, and all do not buy, stock control you whichever good bad stock, tube people how to say, why? Because, according to Buffett's amount investing methodology, there is a very important one, you buy a stock, you want the earth then good company, an annual mean growth of 40%, so the company is too small, you must to preserve 40% growth, you can use 20 times earnings to buy it, and why? Because he has one, we want the market price is intrinsic amount in half the time, we can buy when it's intrinsic merit is $ 40, we find a way in which the market price of $ 20, which is half the time buy it, you have the exact grab, at all times it inward in the value of the return, you will earn 100%. So, steady growth of pricing is relatively simple, it is to retain an annual growth of 20%, 10 times earnings in the time to buy, I, for instance, Tong Ren Tang, you can see, from 1993 to the present, the average annual net profit up 20%, then we buy it in 10 times earnings, you can buy it too easy to make money. Now earn less than the broader market fell to 1000 points, it has 30 times earnings, then we can not buy, you can buy anything another, you can wait until such a situation as I mentioned there, then buy it.
relatively simple and stable growth stocks, cyclical stocks to more complex, but the pricing is also very important. Let me give an example, Shanghai Automotive, the automotive industry, you must be very good, 16 yuan 18 yuan to buy a Shanghai motorcar, then buy it, you made a mistake, buy the maximum point, from 16 yuan to 4 sets dollars, especially bloody, is not it? But I say this with the usage, you will find in the $ 16 will buy time, according to Buffett's instructor Graham's method, it is very simple, cyclical stocks, you put it 7 to 10 years all the profits add up, and then divide by 7 or 10, you can calculate the average annual profit, according to the pricing, risk greatly reduced, because such a enumeration, Shanghai Automotive's best price is 2.6 yuan, even in the worst performance of the Shanghai Automotive time, when cyclical low, with 2.6 yuan to buy, you are not afraid. 2.6 yuan and 16 yuan to buy to buy, too distant, in fact, why many people, a few years ago, my office are running up the following electrician, said he was buying Shanghai and Changan, showing how popular, in fact, that time, now know, the sum of 80%.
pricing is very important, good stocks but also a good price.
then the emulating is Four-year bear market down, we can not adopt the most I say what is the premise? Is that when you buy a good company when you buy a good price, then you hold no long-term problem, right? Let me give an example of exotic countries, you bought a decade antecedent, Wal-Mart, long-term holding, immediately up two or three times, 100 years ago to buy Coca-Cola, you will earn 2000 times, 2000 times ah, 10,000 yuan to buy, now is 200 billion. I own the stock, I bought the Maotai, I patiently wait for it to market as two years, I did not touch it, until 2003, the inflection point occurs, and I talk a little morsel, in October 2003, the brandy industry, there is a very interesting phenomenon, the alcohol industry later a five-year bear market, the country fell to 3.2 million tons annual output of 8,000,000 tons, the conception of life has changed a lot of folk beverage malt, wine, not drink alcohol, liquor a depression. In 2003, liquor sales stopped falling, began to heave, Maotai boost, I waited two years, prices fell to my standard set, the dynamic price-earnings ratio 10 times, I think that in 2035 there's big opportunity came, and bought a to mobilize a lot of friends to buy. But unfortunately, numerous of my friends made a two alternatively three greenbacks, they speedily throw. Many folk bought the stock very meager, no money, he has been reserve the results has been set, the more the deeper set, 40 yuan to four yuan set: 40 sets of 30 could not bear to mow, set to 20 numb, set to 10 element, regardless of his a few years, a bear market over, open the bill to see, all junk stocks. Why? Good stocks made money are thrown, had to hold bad stocks. As in my villa, the grass is left, dragged the flowers to play. Bad money drives out good, in many of our friends, bad drives out good stock shares, leaving the stock is very poor, so a good stock to have been held. I recommend buying a Maotai hear, buy Shuanghui, bought a Shanghai airport, bought a Tong Ren Tang, buy Yunnanbaiyao, earn a lot of friends, two greenbacks out of it, throw away, till now, has turned tripled, up 200%, but not many human left back, it is evident, bought a good company, is a good price, if you can not hold it long term, the profit margin do not receive back assure. This 12-character inside, long-term holding, I think required. The long-term holding inside, including a belief that we have such stock-picking philosophy, when you do not want to hold this stock for 15 years, 20 years, a lifetime, you do not buy it. You have this morale, in order to buy good stocks. I bought the stock, holding, will not move, I said no move is meant, the fundamentals do not alteration, the holders of a lifetime. Well because it has been advantageous.
the last 12 words, it is appropriate to scatter, it is relatively simple, even the best companies, even the best stocks can not just buy one, like the Shanghai airport, so good, so good as Maotai, can not only buy one, should be appropriate dispersion, dispersion deserving to what extent better? I feel 5 to 10 is good, not too much, too much of our research, but after, I play a lot every year and the Deputy General Manager phone companies I often go to sprint, shareholders to participate in, if I bought a 100 a stock, I also engaged. So an appropriate dispersion.
This is the second, 12 words.
third, the first industry, after the stocks. After the first industry stocks What is the reason? We buy stocks, after so many years, we have the experience, and buy stocks, you buy the industry leader. Buy the best, you buy beef,
Lacoste Camden Trainers, definitely buy Shuanghui; you buy liquor, which evidently Maotai and Wuliangye election; I want to buy steel stocks, buy Baosteel; I want to buy airport shares, to buy throughput, vehicle, afford largest airport; I want to buy wine, ruddy wine can only buy the Great Wall and Changyu, I will not just buying them; beer, apparently beer, Tsingtao Brewery and Yan; Dairy, Yili and Mengniu is at first, will not selected ternary and new wish to this; the electronics industry, ZTE, Huawei, if listed,
Womens Lacoste Trainers, that are inside, we all must buy a faucet. Buy lead, but also the industry, which also select individual stocks. Generally will not buy junk stocks now, but also a leader, I think the industry is also very important alternative to select individual stocks, they must be distinguished according to the industry, because time is not too much, I can probably talk about simple.
Why distinguish between industries? First, we must differentiate between the settled growth of industry and cyclical industries, like edible and beverage and medicine, is to stabilize the growth industries, such as pills, no for of the economy situation, the more I take medicine, eat 3 half kilogram, economic situation is no nice, dine one, do no eat chilly medicine. Cyclical industry, it is not the same, we the biggest myths in the price-earnings ratio ashore the maximum vulnerable when a cyclical industry, you discern, in 2004 to the present macro-control, a lot of losses are losses in cyclical industries. 2004, a cyclical industry, steel, concrete, petrochemical, automotive, banking, these industries, their income are very cheap, if it were not for the price-earnings ratio was 2,3 times, whether you look price-earnings ratio, price-earnings ratio less than 10 times that, You purchase these cyclical industry, it would be a huge whether, in truth just the opposite cyclical industry, price-earnings ratio is lofty, performance of a muff, accurate value buying. For example, gold, gold prices soaring, gold stocks are soaring, tin not buy this period, you wait until the amount of gold near to the price of mining gold mine, gold mine mining costs will be approximately about $ 220 an ounce, gold drop in price to that time, gold mining is no money to make, it will stop mining, one to stop mining, gold mining enterprise you will watch the price-earnings ratio is very lofty, it may be high as a hundred times, merely just by this time, you buy gold stock, $ 220 an ounce in gold while the gold stock to buy, then a lot of money. In a cyclical industry, it is effortless to earnings, web assets taken, so I calculate, above all distinguish between the industry is very essential.
Why do I give distinct industry premier voting, and then choose individual stocks example, from the viewpoint of excellence, the magnitude of selected industries where? Some industries, it is not produce Ushimata, you see, the U.S. Dow Jones concordance can be seen, Ushimata are produced in where? Ushimata are produced in manufacturing, services, mining industry. You put the essay of listed companies doubled the Dow, the extensive majority belong to these three sectors, we are talking about General Electric, Coca-Cola, Gillette razors, are fabrication, Wal-Mart, some well-known banks belong to the services, Exxon, China, China Petroleum are all extractive industries, Ushimata are nativity in these industries. What the industry is not out of Ushimata it? Think about it, public utilities, not on a big bull stock. You look at the European stock market, stock market began from the Netherlands, two hundred years of history, there is a utility which shares into big bull stock? Gas, metro, highways, tunnels, electricity, bridges, this company, I suggest that you do not buy, not to say they can not make money, but that you want to make on it 100 times, 10 times, too hard! We need to do a professional investor, there should be a feeling, that is, infantry do not want to become a general, not a good soldier, did not want to billionaire investor, I said not a good investor, we want to be billionaires, we The stock selection will think about it, do not go from the selected utility stocks, gas, highway, metro, their prices are regulated, you must let subway price increase, to be BS-ing people to report to the NPC to go, you how to make Metro a bull stock? Metro trim, repair the highway, at each turn to several billion bank lend, capital disbursement is colossal. And manufacturing it, you see ZTE, it has to sell products to Europe, Africa, sold to, and this is the manufacturing conveniences, it can be sold for the most remote zones, can be sold to every edge of the earth, Coca-Cola is This example, Wal-Mart in global expansion, the banks in the universal expansion of these industries can produce super bull stock, up ten times, Wal-Mart from birth, up 500 times.
some industry really want to enter a sunset industry, we do not buy. For example, Kodak, does not generate a dark and white membrane. Mobile phones, has just bring an end to ... when it is extremely glorious sunrise industry,
Lacoste Trainers UK, but now, everybody is clear, the call is a sunset industry, to do too many mobile phone, it has no money. Some of the industry was not destined to make big money, for example, airlines, I not bought airline stocks, I'll give it a name, cried bullied industry, what is bullied ah? On the one hand the rising cost of airline costs are two, one petroleum, one is a lot of labor, oil prices will always be, but man's wages, we recollection the look, so many years now, when you that wages are falling? The minimum cost of alive in every metropolis are improving, we did not see fall. Shenzhen Airlines is doing the best, doing so well, it is a airplane, but likewise 110 individuals, ground handling, flight attendants, captain of an aircraft, the cost is always rising, airlines below this brain, the cost of disappointment. That one and displeasure, is price, the age ticket discount.
But some industries, two have benefited, while reducing costs, while raising prices. You see the United States, Philip Morris, Marlboro smokes production, as well as Shanghai, China brand cigarettes, cigarette it can continue to introduce new technologies, continue to reduce costs,
Lacoste Carnaby Trainers, tobacco processing, to reduce manpower costs year after year, Conversely, tobacco prices increased year at year. China brand cigarettes, 1,000 yuan a number of more than *** up when we find this industry, it not only heave prices indefinitely, and can continue to reduce costs, airlines can not buy this, raising the cost of , lower prices. Qingdao Haier, I admire it very good, but it is in a very unfortunate industry, steel, raw material prices have continued, but many family utensils business, bargain with each other, falling prices, so I never buy home utensils stocks. We must distinguish the industry.
first trades stocks, this is my third.
fourth, extremely harsh conditions of stock selection. I, for instance, a foreign talent, very hard, the average daily painting to painting, but one year,
Lacoste Strap Trainers, a painting did not sell, then ask an old painter, said that I so diligently every day, how a painting not sell. The old painter said, you can turn, with 364 days a year to draw a painting, one day to sell paintings, I'm sure you can sell. This case study for my shares of listed companies, very instructive, I probably do. Is to use 364 days to learn, to investigate, to ascertain from life. Do not look at the computer daily quotes, daily look at the price fell to two from three, two rose to three fast, does not mean much. With 364 days to see the report, to investigate, to think, time to buy stocks one day, I say one day, no amplification, I memorize I spent a year in recent years the time to buy stocks, in fact, less than a day, because it is too easy to buy stocks now, just call, just a few clicks online, a few minutes over. This can be done, really not easy, because most of the shares of Friends, many aged people, staring at the shade all day, trading stocks, really wretched, they buy stocks, do not know what this company is doing, this company was good, not good where it is. Stare all day where you can see the money? Do not see the money. Study with 364 days, why only one day to buy stocks? There are several harsh conditions to stock selection. The critical point about popular, is the lotion of the crop, 100 shares to be elected to a pretty good. If we can pick a thousand miles, so much the better. I, case in point, as the end.
stock picking to raspy to what extent? One is to thousands of pet in one, we buy stock, to comply with a number of conditions, if you do not meet the conditions, do not buy, that is to have an motif, this idea after four years of a bear market, many of my friends is tough to accept, but I This is indeed invariable, that is, you buy this stock, you should be like buying a house to live in their own, like to buy, you buy a house will not say is just buy a set, then every few days to sell, but also for a right? Many people live in a house to live your life. Because to live life, because you put their own savings to buy a house for decades, they paid great attention to the selection, place, air and brightness. We buy stocks, buy a house so as to be selected.
second to the same ticket as close to Jane. Stamp collecting ticket collecting, the Lin Biao as *** time stamps, will not just sell it, to understand more to put the more expensive. Good stock, too, a long time, will be very valuable, in the middle of the oil stocks often does not move when the Maotai often has a nailed time, fixed Yunnanbaiyao often have the time, but over time , you know, it gave you an anniversary growth of 15% to 20%. If there are 100 million, up 20% per year, four decades after, entire billionaires. And we very lightly could go on holiday, melodrama, go fishing. But the prelude is good, good you can treasure. As close as stamps. There is a mentioning, stock adoptions, such as wife, we heard this statement putrid, I think it is the truth, we have to choose life partners as well as stock selection. That is, the company which they must encounter the criterion, I currently prop shares in which there is a direction, which side are good, are the thousands of caress in one, and I do not speak the name, to speak about its condition, we listen out of which one may be heard, but how we can along to my stock picking this demanding criterion, I deem we presently, even now I reach this strict standard, but at the peak of this standard line, then at fewest a little, we will not buy junk stocks, will not lose money you lose to get about 80-90%. Not more than 20% loss.
It has well-known mark, not merely is the industry's well-known brands, but also the nation's well-known brands. This company has. The second product of its kind, that is, leave it in location elsewhere can not produce. Japan can think a lot of ways, to agree in more than a decade has not all over. It is the company's own technical staff, put it approach the place where product does not work. That is, regions with a monopoly. Third, it's advertising, do not spend much. Because the old chief or prominent politicians, leaders of the free advertising to do it, it do not have any advertising costs. Fourth, it should not take a lot of debt, it is not even lend money. Because we usually do not disburse care to many of my friends to buy stocks, corporate debt, some very high hazard way, what some companies would collapse. As Shanghai's Fuxing Group, Hello I am a bad tube, the light you so much debt, I do not buy it. Meiling, Gree is a huge debt, 100 billion of debt, 20 billion net worth, do not touch me like this. And this company, there is no debt. Not only has no debt, but not out of the goods, they received the money. In China, where the absence of honesty, debt default is very emphatic. We buy stocks, huge receivables to be cautious. So many years, while I appreciate the CIMC, can never buy in the additional set of teams. Because the Group's receivables is set too colossal, there are no receivables, and why I have such a great buy receivables? Dongfang Boiler years ago you see, my pot is not the East, which once received the advance payout of billions here, you know it's the product shall not receive absolutely no hazard. And this company, no receivables, has not always produced the merchandise, the people's money first. Fifth, people put the merchandise on the storage a few years, not valueless. Computer, chip, put in a storehouse five-year, $ 1000 microprocessor, put five-year, 100 are not sell. Biscuits, put five, you can sell money? Cardboard, put the five years, the periodical is yellow, you can make money it? To the company's products, not fearful of the backlog, it is more backlog, the longer it is more valuable. Sixth, it is the main product equipment, basement, no upkeep, no oxidize, no date, depreciation, on the opposed, the basement will increase value, and why? It has become increasingly different populations of microorganisms, stuffed out of the product is getting better. Other way round, many of our massive industry stocks, like airlines, aircraft are the most important costs, important equipment, fly out a few years later, it is necessary to spend money to buy new aircraft, and that shareholders make any money? From the tourist, where it eventually earned money, but also to buy current aircraft, new aircraft is expensive. Then why do not we buy those devices will not be obsolete? There are also more right. Probably mean that our stock selection, use the most discerning eye to select stocks, the management is the same, the company's treatment, the chairman, and he is the industry's technical administration, he is a proponent of the product savor and standards producers, he never wavered for several decades its cardinal industry, many refused the temptation. Many examples like this. Finally, I think comes down to, in order to invest successfully, can be briefed in two sentences out, one that is, 364 days a year with a carefully chosen the best company, the second sentence, patiently waiting, waiting for prices to reach I say good share a good price, on the line.
highway from the investment began, but binary a lot of money. He gradually learned to choose really good business investment, is the key to success. Later, although Bin bought Changyu, and has held until now.
billion has cornered out that, in order to get a tiny from that affair benefits, then fish in troubled waters better to do. bigger, they ambition transform quite, very rich. So, those hundreds of billions extra than one billion of assets, across one age, he ambition converge a lot of resources to the company. , the key issue is: choose a successful business, grow with it.
in the elapse 10 years, the U.S. stock market actors of real possession, monetary services, banking, retail, assurance. In fact in China, much of the stock market final year in this wave, like this one is the main line. Stock selection is to choose the best Chinese industry, and most companies in these industries.
Therefore, the pool of his stock, he chose Maotai, Yunnanbaiyao, Vanke, China Merchants Bank.
So, good business standards?
a good width and width of the enterprise market is large enough. To be able to fight inflation, that this company's products must be skillful to raise prices, if necessary to mention price, then the investment risk may change a lot. For example, Maotai in 1970, when it could sell 7-8 dollars a flask, from the 1970s to now, 30 years of Maotai price increase is staggering.
Also, a sense of Also have enough net, rather light assets. Such as Maotai, plus local Chishui regional sorghum brewing water, cost 90 000 dollars per ton last year to sell 610,000 per ton, may sell in the next few years, 720,000 ton, does not need a great investment will continue to bring to the enterprise's money stream.
but bin in view, choose a good company, even if the same can make money in a bear market. This investment in the bin but Moutai who has been well represented. In 2003 he bought a fearless Maotai, now have access to ten times earnings.
a excellent return. growth rate will be dwindled to just 15 times in three years, at a lower appraisal. According to his research, the world's greatest companies, the stock is basically a 45 degree tilt going up, br>
Explore the amount of the investment to give a fri
Linear Mode
