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rogerzeng338
07-25-2011, 09:28 PM
尽管监管部门反复申明10万亿地方政府融资平台贷款风险可控,然而,平台公司流动性饥渴却是不 争事实。
  7月12日,接近湖南省高速公路建设开发总公司(以下简称湖南高速)的人士透露,在短短1个月后,湖南 高速又开始谋划发行新一期的短期融资券发行事宜,额度超过此前的9亿元。
  一名银监系统中层人士称,湖南高速在去年末被整改为一般性公司,退出平台类公司管理,但仍属于地方政府 融资平台公司。
  这家以10亿元资本金撬动1600亿资产规模的公司,在中国高速公路发展史上正在谱写“奇迹”。以其为 主体的湖南高速系统,在建里程4064公里,全国排名第一;在建和通车总里程达6450公里,从2007年 全国排名第17位一跃至全国前三。
  然而,作为湖南高速大债主的国开行、建行、工行、中行、交行等10家债权银行对该公司应该绷紧神经。多 名债权银行人士称,今年对融资平台贷款控制严格,不会再对湖南高速等此类融资平台公司放款,平台贷款如到期 ,银行会及时收回不予续贷。
  “发短期融资券是为了解决流动性问题,申请了多笔短期贷款也是这一目的。”湖南高速一位内部人士张明( 应对方要求,不透露对方姓名,文中用化名)透露。该公司提供的数据显示,截至2011年3月31日,公司短 期借款、一年内到期的长期借款分别为410.12亿元、6.57亿元。一名商业银行投行人士直言,湖南高速 在建项目太多,短期难以产生足够现金流,还款压力极大,短贷长用的风险隐患不容小觑。
  此外,湖南高速还拥有对外担保9.25亿元,对内担保302.6亿元的或有债务。借贷额加上担保额,湖 南高速的负债共1625亿元,几乎与总资产相当。
  在一位银行债券发行人士看来,过度依赖地方政府财政还款并不现实,如果银行贷款届时面临危机,湖南高速 将公益性高速公路民营化或许是一条出路。
  然而,昔日“公路大王”刘根山惊天巨案已给高速公路民营化敲响警钟,部分民营高速管理混乱,政商勾结贪 腐迭出,高速民营化短期似乎难以成为主流。高速贷款困局如何破解,仍是难解之谜。
  160倍杠杆
  仅以10亿的资本金,撬动1600亿元的天量资产规模,比较罕见。
  湖南高速1993年3月19日成立,初始注册资本金1亿元,后陆续增资至9.96亿元。
  财报显示,从国家四万亿投资计划公开伊始,湖南高速资产规模飞速膨胀,2008年-2010年分别为588.03亿元、1061.80亿元和1515.44亿元,截至2011年3月末,公司 总资产1633.75亿元。
  负债方面,2008-2010 年及2011 年3 月末,湖南高速负债分别为417.31亿元、808.64亿元、1211.19亿元和1322 .47亿元。
  3月末,该公司资产负债率高达81%。截至2010年末的负债中,银行贷款占比高达89.32%至11 81亿元,融资结构单一风险较高,涉及到的银行主要包括国开行、招行、建行、邮政储蓄银行、工行、中行、交 行、华融湘江银行、民生、中信等10家。其中,国开行以近300亿元规模为最大,建行贷款量79亿元居第二 位。
  数家银行人士对记者称,湖南高速的杠杆率太高,目前货币政策趋紧,在银行贷款额度紧张情况下,不再对该 公司放贷。
  张明说 宁波到上海物流 (http://www.huoyun-shh.com),各银行给予公司的授信不少,约有2000多亿元,已用900多亿,但今年银行的贷款规模 很少,其申贷困难。
  据悉,今年一季度,湖南高速获得的贷款寥寥可数,金额和放贷银行家数远逊往年。建行、工行、中行为其发 放了14.2亿、4亿和4亿元一年短期贷款。国开行发放了5亿元为长期贷款,交行、中行、工行分别发放长期 贷款5亿元、2亿元、2亿元。一季度湖南高速共获银行贷款仅36.2亿元,短期贷款多于长期贷 款。
  某股份制银行当地公司部人士说,暂时未发现有湖南高速重大经营变更或债务恶化,但出于对平台公司的谨慎 ,其会密切关注其财务和还款状况。
  张明对记者称,银行中长期贷款审批及用款流程较为复杂,而公司在建工程较多,为解决资金周转问题,同时 降低融资成本,所以大量借入流动资金贷款。在他看来,经过与银行沟通,这些短期贷款一般都会滚动放贷,但记 者询问其是否得到确定承诺时,其不置可否。
  该公司短贷长用早有征兆。财报显示,2008年-2010年湖南高速短期贷款分别为114.28亿元、191.74亿元和365.97亿元,2010年末公 司短期借款比2009年末增加90.87%。
  短融券救急
  湖南高速缺钱当地银行界共知。
  资料显示,湖南高速近年来新建项目较多,每年资本支出较大,对公司资产负债率和还本付息产生较大压力。 2010年,公司及下属子公司开工高速公路5条,目前以公司为建设开发主体的在建高速公路项目共34个,其 中收费还贷性的政府项目22个,经营性项目12个,总里程达到2594.99公里,总投资为2150.59 亿元。
  从2007年开始,湖南高速新建项目较多,经营性现金流入较少,在贷款本息支付上存在巨大压力。200 9年、2010年,该公司财务费用分别达到24.54亿元、21.46亿元,营业成本为39.05亿元、5 1.94亿元。
  2009年-2010年,公司主营业务收入56.28亿元、77.28亿元,以通行费为主的,各收入39.64亿元、4 7.92亿元。
  10亿撬1600亿 湖南高速遭遇资金烦恼
  “目前盈亏勉强平衡,但明后年多条高速公路竣工后,银行贷款还本期到来,公司将面临巨大的压力。”一名 接近湖南高速的人士指出。
  张明自称,2007、2008年开工建设的多个项目将在2012年、2013年集中建成通车,届时除了 归还当年利息外,还进入每年还本期。根据内部测算,湖南高速未来现金流能覆盖贷款本息。
  此所谓“现金流”包含了湖南省政府对湖南高速的补贴。财报显示,2009-2010 年,公司补贴收入占利润总额的比例分别为200.41%和90.17%,补贴金额分别为13.73亿元、4 5.16亿元。
  值得关注的是,按照2010年12月3日“银监发(2010)103号文”《中国银监会关于规范中长期 贷款还款方式的通知》,各机构要本着风险早期暴露、审慎经营、科学负担三大原则,对包括平台贷款在内的中长 期贷款进行统一规范,不得集中在贷款到期时偿还;要合理确定还款方式,实行分期偿还,做到半年一次还本付息 。以此来看,湖南高速以往采取的先还息不还本的做法在今年不再可行,其偿还本息的压力陡增。
  商业银行人士透露,截至2011年6月末,湖南高速对外借款余额约891亿元,与去年末接近1200亿 元的余额相比,缩减了300亿元左右,意即湖南高速上半年净还款300亿元,充分彰显了银行的 催逼之力。
  一名评级公司人士提示风险称,湖南高速在建工程较多,多条新建成高速公路目前正处于车流量培育期,整体 盈利规模较小,盈利能力偏弱。
  湖南省高速公路管理局局长、湖南高速总经理冯伟林在近期的一次会议上说,今年高速公路筹资非常困难,要 创新筹融资方法,拓宽信托等融资渠道。
  创新救急的方法之一是发行短期融资券。6月13日,湖南高速公告,面向银行间债市机构投资者招标发行无 担保的9亿元短期融资券,期限366天,所募资金中,4亿元用于补充公司本部运营高速公路的养护性支出,另 5亿元偿还部分银行贷款。发行结果显示,发行额满,中标利率4.89%。
  商业银行投行人士透露,才过短短一个月,湖南高速又开始申请新一期的短期融资券,申请额高于上次的9亿 元,目前材料已报银行间市场交易商协会待批。
  市场人士认为,湖南高速频发短融,实为运营资金匮乏和短期贷款还款压力倒逼之举。截至2011年3月3 1日,该公司短期借款、一年内到期的长期借款分别为410.12亿元、6.57亿元。
  除了偿债要钱,湖南高速持续的“大跃进”计划更是要钱。资料透露,按照规划,“十二五”期间,该公司共 安排高速公路建设项目70个,建设总规模6334 公里,估算投资3000亿元,拟筹融资2500亿元。
  如何还账:政府之忧
  银监会对政府融资平台类新增贷款监管日益严厉,给湖南高速带来空前高压。
  张明表示,按照分类监管原则,湖南高速已被湖南银监局列为一般性公司,退出平台管理,不过现在还没有正 式下文。
  一名地方银监局中层人士解析,要将一家平台贷公司贷款整改为一般公司贷款,需要满足3个原则,一是现金 流能全覆盖贷款本息,二是银行、地方政府、平台公司签订了三方还款协议,三是所有债券银行定性一致,同意按 非平台公司贷款对待。
  “现金流全覆盖是指在每一个还款时点上,收入都能覆盖贷款本息,不过此处所指的现金流可以包括政府补贴 收入。”
  张明说,湖南财力紧张,政府欠了湖南高速20多亿元的资本金一直未给,公司在建项目多,政府缓发资本金 影响项目建设,也增加了融资困难。
  期望湖南政府财政兜底的融资平台公司不止湖南高速一家。人民银行长沙中心支行人士吴盛光2010年8月 发布的《湖南省政府投融资平台的调查与思考》论文披露,截至2009年末,湖南省共有政府投融资平台385 家,其中省级13家,市级101家,县级271家,撬动信贷资金的杠杆比例达到4.19倍。
  吴盛光表示,平台还贷资金中,39.31%来源于企业自身盈利或项目收益,26.13%来源于政府回购 ,其他主要来源于财政收入、质押物偿还和担保人偿还等。“一旦财政收入状况恶化,尤其是经济欠发达县市,就 可能出现信用风险,而银行也难以监管该类贷款资金去向,存在资金挪用风险。”
  “与其他多数平台公司一样,湖南高速单靠自身偿还贷款很有难度,并且,从2010年开始,湖南高速开始 12个经营性项目建设,规模很大,这些项目原则上政府是不兜底的,目前其融资困难,通车后车流量还处于培育 期,还款风险突出。”
  一为知名评级公司人士称。截至2011年3月底,上述经营性项目累计到位资金191.45亿元,占项目 投资总额的23.08%。
  记者通过湖南高速6月份发布的短期融资券募集说明书发现,该公司运营的部分高速公路,车流量呈下降趋势 ,带来未来现金流压力。比如,常张高速2010年车流量为7965辆/日(标准小车),今年一季度降为2210辆/日。衡枣高速2010年车流量为21370辆/日,今年一季度降为5342辆/日。
  业内人士介绍,一般而言,一条高速公路日车流量超过1万辆,才可盈利,但记者发现,至2011年一季度 ,湖南高速正运营的11条高速公路,仅耒宜高速、临长高速的车流量超过1万辆。
  张明辩称,与云南、贵州等边疆省份不同,湖南作为中部省份,地理位置重要,过往车辆较多,未来湖南各高 速公司建成联网后,车流量可得到提升。不过,他不愿提及地方高速公路车流量的困境和未来前景。
  信贷融资成为湖南高速暂时缓解资金紧张的通道。湖南高速人士表示,12日公司召开的上半年工作总结大会 上,董事长冯伟林说,在非常困难的情况下,公司上半年实际筹措资金345亿元,保证了工程建设的顺利推进。 然而,在银行贷款收紧之后,基建信托如果随之收紧,湖南高速又将面临新的融资难题。
  但,为了避免出现坏账,某银行公司部总经理坦言,如果在某个时间段高速公路项目现金流显露危机,商业银 行一般都会调整一次负债期限。
  “长远来看,真正令人担心的是,未来中国的高速公路收费政策问题,是否大部分甚至全部的高速公路都要成 为公益性公路?转为公益性后,公路的使用是否是最有效率的,政府能否经营好?”上述人士认为,一旦大部分高 速公益化,政府很难承担如此巨大的还款压力。
  解决资金困境的通途是否就是高速公路民营化?上述人士提出,融资平台公司可把股权卖掉,引入国内外投资 者,归还银行贷款。然而,另有银行业界人士反驳,数年前,刘根山等“公路大王”经济案件频发,致使政府对民 营资本进入高速公路产生质疑和反思,高速公路“国进民退”,为防范风险,目前各地方政府的主导思路还是以政 府投资为主。宏观紧缩持续,高速公路投融资终将陷入两难,道阻且长。
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